EU's divisions show as it embraces Obama era

International Herald Tribune

Stephen Castle

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

BRUSSELS: Since well before the inauguration of Barack Obama, European Union officials have been trying to organize the first summit meeting between their leaders and the new president of the United States.

Unfortunately, the 27-nation bloc cannot agree on a venue.

Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek of the Czech Republic, which holds the rotating EU presidency, wants the event to be held in Prague and invited Obama there during a phone call earlier this month.

But EU officials say this would mean Obama's being greeted by the Czech president, Vaclav Klaus - a man who opposes further European integration and disputes the effects of climate change.

Instead, an alternative idea is circulating under which the informal meeting with the 27 EU leaders - expected around the time Obama visits Europe to attend a NATO summit meeting in the spring - would be held in Brussels.

Meanwhile, a third proposal is to have the meeting in Strasbourg, the city where NATO leaders will gather.

The tug of love over the summit meeting illustrates one of the central concerns among policy makers as Obama takes power: that the EU's enthusiasm for the new U.S. administration will be hampered by divisions and a lack of serious commitment.

Next week, European foreign ministers will face their first test of the new trans-Atlantic era when they discuss whether to help Obama close the prison camp at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, by taking some of those interned there.

Work is also under way to try to respond to U.S. calls for greater European involvement in Afghanistan, and to the possibility of tighter financial sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program.

But some experts in Europe fear the worst.

"It is possible that Obama as an instinctive multilateralist will look to the EU," said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, a research organization in London. "I think he may be disappointed by European divisions, impotence and lack of capabilities."

Europeans certainly like Obama. The French finance minister, Christine Lagarde, anticipating the inauguration Tuesday, told a gathering of influential business and political figures at the National Assembly in Paris on Monday that it was "a little magical."

Jean-David Levitte, chief diplomatic adviser to the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, called Obama's entry into the White House "really a historic moment."

"Should Europeans be glad?" he asked. "Based on the evidence: yes."

And for a man with a crowded agenda, Obama is well informed on detailed European issues. During his phone call with Topolanek, Obama asked about the ratification process of the EU's Lisbon Treaty, Czech officials confirmed.

But with expectations of a renewal of the trans-Atlantic relationship so high, some are braced for disappointment.

"Obama will bring a huge change in public perceptions of the trans-Atlantic relationship," said a senior EU official not authorized to speak to the media. "But it may mean less in terms of reality."

"We were, after all, working reasonably well with Bush II," he added, referring to the second administration of George W. Bush.

On a handful of issues - most notably climate change - there is a clear prospect of substantial cooperation, which could form the basis of a global consensus. Europeans are also looking forward to greater U.S. engagement in the Middle East, bringing trans-Atlantic policy closer.

Meanwhile, Guantánamo provides an early opportunity for the EU to prove its usefulness to Obama. Portugal has already urged EU foreign ministers to accept detainees, and Britain is likely to accept its own nationals. Some countries, including Austria, are reluctant to take part, according to one EU diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject. There are also legal complications for several countries, particularly in accepting non-Europeans.

Though some European officials insist that this is an American-made problem, it seems likely that the EU will try to get off on the right foot by offering some help.

On Afghanistan, the situation is more difficult since few European nations are prepared to commit more troops. They are, however, more open to the idea of increasing development aid and giving a boost to projects like police training. Nordic nations, Italy and Spain may also reduce restrictions on the use of some troops in the more dangerous south of Afghanistan.

Some argue that, given the sensitivity of the issue, particularly in countries like Germany, Washington will have to tread carefully. Grant, with the Center for European Reform, said he believed that Obama needed to make the case for engagement in Afghanistan in a language Europeans understand.

"We should be prepared to provide more troops," he said, "as long as Obama provides a convincing strategy that will persuade the European public."

Moreover, since he knows there are limits on what Europeans will offer, Obama may be conservative in his direct requests to avoid a setback to trans-Atlantic relations.

Regarding Iran, most European diplomats expect Obama's policy to temper an offer of dialogue with Tehran with the threat of tighter sanctions. That is controversial in countries like Germany and Italy, which want any trade embargoes pursued through the United Nations to ensure that European companies do not lose out to Chinese or Russian competitors.

But this would only be possible if there was a bigger global initiative from Obama, particularly to create a better dialogue with Moscow. This might mean going slow on NATO's expansion or putting aside moves to make a missile shield system operational in Europe.

Levitte, the French diplomatic adviser, noted that dealing with Russia "requires much determination, savoir-faire and patience," and that "Russia has a concept - not exactly ours - of a multipolar world." France, he added, has had a good dialogue with Moscow.

Yet on Russia, the EU is a difficult partner because of the lack of unity within the 27-nation bloc. Tensions surface frequently between hawks and doves.

While the trans-Atlantic relationship is certain to benefit in the short term from the arrival of a new administration, Grant argues that Obama will have to come to terms with the EU's shortcomings. The bloc is, he said, "fundamentally divided between those that have a robust strategic culture and those that want to live in a big Switzerland where you solve things through diplomacy and aid."

"This rift," Grant added, "is well understood in the U.S. defense establishment. They think that certain European countries are helpful, but they don't think the EU is helpful, because it is not united."