Analysis: why the Russia-Georgia conflict matters to the West - part 1
Times Online
August 8, 2008
( Vano Shlamov/AFP/Getty Images)
Georgian troops fire rockets at separatist South Ossetian rebels
Richard Beeston, Foreign Editor
It would be a serious mistake for the international community to regard the dramatic escalation of violence in Georgia as just another flare-up in the Caucasus.
The names of the flashpoints may be unfamiliar, the territory remote and the dispute parochial, but the battle under way will have important repercussions beyond the region.
The outcome of the struggle will determine the course of Russia’s relations with its neighbours, will shape Dmitri Medvedev’s presidency, could alter the relationship between the Kremlin and the West and crucially could decide the fate of Caspian basin energy supplies.
Quite what triggered the Georgian offensive, on the day that the world was supposed to gather in peace for the start of the Beijing Olympics, is not yet clear.
It was known that a serious confrontation had been building up. British Intelligence predicted this year that a war in the Caucasus was probable. The focus was Georgia, the West’s main ally in the region and the only export route for Caspian oil and gas outside Kremlin control.
Part of the responsibility must lie with President Saakashvili. The US-educated Geogian leader has rightly been praised for turning around his country’s dire economy, transforming the Soviet-style army into a modern Western force and standing up to the Kremlin.
Georgia has been saddled for the best part of two decades with breakaway regions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both supported by Russia as part of the Kremlin’s strategy to weaken Tbilisi’s authority. Nevertheless, seeking to reintegrate the separatist provinces by force is a risky, some would say reckless, move that threatens to trigger an all-out war between Russia and Georgia.
On paper the small Georgian military is no match for the might of Russia. But Mr Saakashvili has calculated that his friends in the West, notably America and Britain, will protect him. Russia must also shoulder responsibility for the crisis. Under President Putin, the Kremlin increased its support for Georgia’s breakaway regions, offering their inhabitants Russian citizenship and arming separatist forces while pretending to be honest broker.
The Kremlin tried to break Georgia’s resolve by deporting its citizens from Russia, imposing blockades and banning the import of Georgian goods. It had been hoped that the election this year of President Medvedev might lead to an easing of tensions between the two neighbours. It seems more likely that, thanks to Mr Putin’s continued influence as Prime Minister and the role played by hardliners in the military, Mr Medvedev may instead find himself embroiled in war.
The West, in particular America, has stoked the regional fire. At the Nato summit in Bucharest this year it pressed for Georgia and Ukraine’s membership of the alliance. The move was blocked by the Europeans but Nato did give a commitment to offer the two countries membership later. That move was seen in Moscow as a challenge to its dominance in what it calls the “near abroad”, the former Soviet republics.
Since then Russia has made clear in word and deed that it will do anything to prevent Nato’s expansion on its western and southern flanks.
America and Britain are closely involved in providing military assistance to the Georgians in the form of arms and training. The support is aimed at encouraging the rise of Georgia as an independent, sovereign state.
But the help is also partly a means of protecting the oil pipeline across Georgia that carries crude from the Caspian to the Black Sea, the only export route that bypasses Russia’s stranglehold on energy exports from the region.
If Georgia succeeds in reimposing its sovereignty over South Ossetia in the face of Russian opposition, it will be a huge setback to Moscow’s influence in the region and embolden other former Soviet republics, such as
Ukraine and Azerbaijan. A defeat for the Georgians could signal the end of Mr Saakashvili’s rule and severely set back Georgia’s efforts to establish itself as a modern Western-looking democracy. Either way, the conflict risks further undermining the strained relations between Russia and the West.
Have your say
I am pretty sure that it is Russia, not Georgia, that is violating international treaty, and I also believe that NATO is ordering Russia to back off or face consequences. Why did this start on the opening day of the Olympics in which the only event Russia & Georgia both received medals was shooting
dustin, Grand Rapids, The United States of America
I think this is all made up by the americans & europeans because of their petroleum crisis. They want to undermine rusian power by fighting regionally the more than obvious rusian influence on its historical neightboors. That’s is why they tried to strenghthen Georgian land ambitions.
Horacio, Quilino, Argentina
This world is ridiculously hostile. I think it is going to be an inevitable part of our futures to destroy civilization as we know it due to our insatiable greed and fear of each other. You can blame whoever you wish but the truth is when your dead nobody cares anyway.
Bob, Orlando, USA
It’s really funny how naïve Americans believe that all of their wars are not conquests but “commitments”. The entire nation should have their heads examined ASAP!
Norm, Moscow, Russia
The point is no one of us really knows the truth. Or is there anyone here from the military iintelligence? We all can only judge basing on what we've seen so far in the mass media. We can not be 100% sure of anything. The only fact that no one has yet tried to dissaprove is that Georgia started it.
Pavel, Tomsk, Russia
To Paul from FL,
Just to make it clear moldova is not russian occupied, it is its own country has been for ages.
To all the other comments about russian government somehow planting its people into countries to undermine the natives, isn't it bordering on paranoia?
Tamara, London,
I have to say that I am surprised about the cold war mentallity of a lot of the comments, media coverage varies so profoundly, but I couldn't agree more with an article from bbc that say's that russia are loosing a media battle, even though in this case they didn't make the first move
Tamara, London,
After the Iraq invasion I'm amazed anyone still believes the political red herrings either side uses to justify their actions here! These "reasons" have replaced the mythical WMDs in the superpower quest for oil and gas and this time Georgia provides the battleground and cannon fodder - its shameful
Nigel, Johannesburg, South africa
I feel for the Russian people and the Georgian people. Your governments are failing you terribly. As soon as Russia completes its transformation from communism to capitalism which is inevitable, Russia will become the great superpower that it once was.
Mike, USA,
I live in North Ossetia, my town is filled with thousands of refugees from SouthOssetia. If you could hear all the stories they tell about people being run over by Georgian tanks or children and the old people burnt and shot by Georgian soldiers, you would understand what genocide is.
Eugenia, Vladikavkaz, RUSSIA
I wonder why are the United States playing a role of world's judge! Georgia is grey background of Iraq invasion! Governments of Ukraine and Georgia trying hardly to spoil relationship with Russia! This is their choise! But I can't stand when some of western ukrainians see in russians rivals!
Yury, Moscow,
To Maria from Tbilisi:
Georgians MUST thank their leaders, first of all, former president Mr.Gamsakhurdia, who'd forced S.Ossetians and Abkhazians to seek independence.
You forgot who'd helped to survive Georgians before protecting from Osmanians, now you'd chosen USA as a new "elder brother" ))
Pavel, Moscow, Russia
1000 of killed people in Osetia is a myth created by Kremlin to justify its invasion to Georgia. Just look at Moscow's behaviour: it agrees to ceasefire and continues bombing, its soldiers and mercenaries loot civilians, it disrespects neibhouring states and calls this its 'historical right'.
Volodymyr, Kyiv,
The truth is that:
"The Ossetians are originally descendants of the Alans, a Sarmatian tribe.
Under Mongol rule, they were pushed out of their medieval homeland south of the Don river in present-day Russia and part migrated towards and over the Caucasus mountains, to Georgia"
maria, Tbilisi, Georgia
"the territory of modern Abkhazia is a part of the ancient Georgian kingdom of Colchis(Kolkha)"
Russia Rejects Recognizing territorial integrity of Georgia!
Now Russia is trying to ocupate not only this breakaway regions,but whole georgia
And Georgia will try to survive any way
We don't want war
maria, Tbilisi, Georgia
1000's have died. America and Russia are mobilizing. Russian tanks and planes taken out by American funded and trained Georgians. A Fight for control of the oil/gas routes. This is the usual formula. In 10 years there will be US bases, missiles, and a shiny pipe with stars and stripes on it.
Rob, Toronto, Canada
I agree with you Maria, if a war is what our leaders want, if russians and americans continue to banter in cold war fashion, a war is what we have. Just like in Iraq, the population in america almost demanded a war against someone who wasn’t even involved in 9-11 just because they wanted justice.
Marie, oklahoma city, USA
Dear all , please stop it!
Do you really want the war?
Our grandmothers and grandfathers still remember the Second world war, why don't you ask from them, how it was…
We all are too aggressive.
Why nobody asks Osetians ,what they want?
Let them decide if they want to be with Georgia or not..
Maria, Saint-Petersburg, Russia
Give an ant a brain, and he'll think he's the center of the universe.
M. Nelson, Houston, USA
My God listen to all of you… How proud and smug all your Russians and Americans are… You think that your side has the higher moral ground. Get a grip… you ARE ALL GUILTY…. Meanwhile the sandwich in the middle, Georgians and Ossetians paid the real price, their lives, homes and livelihoods.
Ben, Melbourne,
Do you know Gordon Brown offered humanitarian help for South Ossetia?
He spoke to Medvedev but did he ask for permission from Bush to do this?
Wake up people, Georgia started this and if it was in the UK and our government didn't do anything then I'd be rather upset about it.
Max, Bradford, England
Interesting to see the media spin from the West…..
In reality…IT WAS GEORGIA WHO ATTACKED IT'S OWN CITIZENS!!!
Finally, RUSSIA is standing up to Israel and the US in her own backyard!!!
US Soldiers pack up!!! Now, you can try and fight with somebody your own size!!!
Meredith, Vancouver, CANADA
Why do you accuse Russia? Did you understand essence of this problem?
Georgia inhumanly attacked Sonth Ossetia at night, when all slept. They bombed everything, that vidili and did not see - a purpose was it is simple to bomb out a city and put to death a maximum of people, this was a genocide.
Alexandra, Moscow, Russia
The Ossertians are a different ethnic group from the ethnic Georgians, as are the Abkhazians. This sort of ethnic mélange is common throughout the Caucasus. During the last years of the Soviet Union (1989-1991), ethnic tensions increased throughout the Soviet Union, as long dormant .
Ramesh Manghirmalani,California, Danville, USA
Russian women are clever. Millions of them want to marry western men : google "russian brides" on your computer., you will see… This is proof it is better to live free and wealthy than oppressed and poor… Communist or nationalist, Russia is no different. KGB before, MAFIAS now…
Michel , Aix en Provence, France
also read http://english.pravda.ru/
andrey, moscow, russia
Dear Americans! Would you please turn off TV for a while and TRY to think yourself, WHICH OF YOU wants to gain profit from providing Georgia with lots of military personnel and equipment and accusing Russia in aggressive, while Ossetians are dying in their wrecked houses? IT'S RED ALERT FEAR, BABY!
Andrey, Moscow, Russia
I think the media and politicians from all sides have contributed to this situation. Why in the world should civilians be killed in their homes, be it for influence in the region, oil, democracy, autarchy, Russia, the US or whatever else is cited as the cause of the conflict.
Maria, Moscow, Russia
I am from North Ossetia, I have never supported Putin's policy. Forget Putin, stop blaming Russia, it's all about people. Georgia started killing south ossetians in Tskhinvali, and we in N. Ossetia have thousands of survived S.ossetians who were only saved because Russia intervened.
Olga, Vladikavkaz, Russia
Very interesting. When it comes to Kosovo and Serbia, the policy of the western countries is "let the Albanian minorities have their own country in the name of freedom", when it comes to Georgia and South Ossetia, the policy is "you shouldn't interfere with the national sovereignty of a country"
Hayward, New York,
A point seeming to have been missed: that of passports. How on earth 80/90% of Ossetian (not ethnically Russian) population is Russian citizen? On which ground citizenship has been granted en mass on a whole neighbouring region of a neighbouring country? Here lies the very first invasion
Pasquale, Milano, Italy
The way I understand it is that we are allies with Georgia. I don't think anybody will know who is at fault in Ossetia for a long time. Russia knowingly attacked an ally of ours. This is a reckless move that does not become the conduct of a responsible superpower.
Joe, Stanwood, USA
Russia has no right to interfere in another countries internal affairs. He is using the time of the Olympic Games and the US involvement elsewhere to gain its ugly ends.
My heart bleeds for Ossetia and its people. Nest (Ras)putin wants to get the Baltic States back as well. Is the world going to let
Ivi Streimann, Tura Beach, Australia
Russia has used US influence as an excuse to invade Georgia. This will not end here. Russia will conquer Georgia then the Ukraine and then who knows… It seems everyone hates the US until you need our help. Well with our commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan we cant help anyone.Good luck EU your next
John, Miami, USA
glenn, salmon arm, canada: this conflict has serious implications for regional security and, more broadly, in all former soviet republics. This conflict is much more serious than battling who has rights to the beach on the narrows in the shuswap.
Terry, new york, usa
as long as the regular people of the world (of any nationality)who usually pay the price of their elected leader's decision to fire a shot do not expect their very same leaders to take or at least face a shot, well ,regular life on this planet will allways be very cheap.
Jim s, sask, can
This couldn't matter less for "the West." As long as "the West" makes things and Russia pumps oil, the two can trade and mutually prosper. The only party this conlict matters to is the criminals who run the U.S., since they've gutted our economy to the point that all we produce is weapons.
Thomas, Binghampton, USA
The problem leaders have today is when you spin your lies so many ways it becomes impossible to keep them straight. I don't profess to know who is right and who is wrong, but I know the greed and selfrightousness of the western industrial leaders is ruining the globe. We should stop it on all fronts
glenn , Salmon Arm, canada
Georgia has brutalized the Ossetian people and engaged in an internationally recognized war for almost two decades now. The current Georgian Government was put in place by a coup against a democratically elected government so an ethno-centric dictatorship could take hold.
Roger Cranfield, Baltimore, USA
Dear Lijandra from Vilnius, Lithuania, it’s interesting that the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Georgia consists of 127 American and British militaries. It’s interesting that yesterday it was the American military aviation that delivered Georgian soldiers from Iraq.
Yana, St.Petersburg, Russia
This has been a painfully illuminating discussion concerning the attitudes of the Russian people. If the Russians posting in the this thread are at ALL representative of their nation, then the Cold War never really ended. And it seems the West will again be threatened by Soviet-style despotism.
Mark, Florida, USA
Dear Tim, I'm Russian I lived and studied in the US. Judging by what I’ve heard, I can tell that most of Americans know nothing about Russia but the Putin. There're so many things that I don’t like in Russia. But no matter what, it’s MY country, and it hurts me a lot to hear these unjust accusations
Yana, St.Petersburg, Russia
This is the state of the human race in the year 2008.
Mark Szwarcberg, Rochester, USA
The break away provinces are providences, populated by the former soviet union to make sure Georgia never regains it soverinty..And now those Russian transplants are the excuse for Russia. Georgia was expelling the last of the invaders. USA needs to attack with air forces from Iraqi bases to aid G.
Melvin Nordstrom , Cali, USA
I would imagine that it wasn't too difficult to turn around around Georgia's economy. Sell it to the West! Quite how much praise he deserves is questionable.
Phil, Barrow-in-Furness, UK
Don't let Giorgia die. Wake up!
Elena, bucharest, romania
I live in the US and I've never been taught to hate the Russians. My uncle is Russian & I have had the pleasure of meeting many fine people from this historic country. Their patriotism runs as deep as ours. History only records the acts of governments, not always the people themselves.
Tim, LaVerne, USA
I would love to see an article that at least briefly mentions how the two territories came to be part of georgia, from which they are now break-aways. South ossetia supported Soviet Russia against Georgia and suffered massively for that. It's not Georgia. Or is the Stalin Constitution sacred now?
Lena, los angeles, USA
Oil. Always oil.
Casey, Portland,
It is interesting that the so called government of South Ossetia is composed of high ranking Russian military officials none of whom have been born there. It is interesting that Russia handed out the passports to all South Ossetians and now claims that they have to protect their citizens there.
Lijandra, Vilnius, Lithuania
what hypocrisy, what utter dribble from the cowardly leaders from the uk and the usa. Do they think intelligent people who listen and watch the news from various sources are incabable of forming an opinion as to who is resposible for the attrocities in ossetia. Russia is right to punish georgia.
Mike, manchester, england
These are the facts here. Georgia began this conflict by using military power to subdue a small breakaway terratory. Russia is intervening. The only thing I see wrong with this is the targeting of civilians on both sides. Other than that, Our Russian allies are doing nothing wrong here.
Dustin, South Carolina, USA
There are some of us who know there is something wrong here, but there is also something called the Patriot Act to fear. There are some of us who are paying attention to the movement of the new world order and american ellitists, but the truth shatters americans whole worldview and it is impossible
Marie, Oklahoma City, US
The "western-looking Democracy" I don’t really see any democracy there ..just look how much wars US has started and for what reason ? Mostly for Oil and nothing more,why do u think they attacked Iraq…why they try to make millitary bases all around Europe ? NO ONE here needs nothing from US.NOTHING.
Darius, Vilnius, Lithuania
It is important for Russia to be in control of the gas and energy supply of this region. This is to maintain the equilibrium of power in the world. The west should be discouraged to extend their influence in this region.
Brendan, Norway
brendan johnson, oslo, norway
What about blaming Russia in attacking Georgia -its nothing but sabotage..Dont believe mass media..They have their profit from all this..On the contrary, Russia helps Ossetia..
Poor Ossetian peacekeepers, they die for nothing.. That's really sad…
Alisa, Moscow, Russia
peter , Nottingham, England
"most Russians now live in the west". You mean it seriously? Do you really believe that more than 60 million Russians live abroad? Ha-ha, I enjoy the level of discussion here.
Oleg, St. Pete, Russia
Everyone siding with Russia on this - read your history people - the US and UK have at least evolved away from policies of genocide, which is probably why most Russians now live in the west. Have a war - you would struggle to mobilise your UK based army!
Peter , Nottingham, England
The Russians are imposing their will on Georgia in what amounts to a return the Soviet glory, where the right of self-determination is never a concern. Georgia was moving on its own internationally recognized territory, to which Russia has absolutely no claim, but uses as an excuse to regime change
Bob, Katy, USA
Every big empire have its raise and especially fall, so one day US domination will disappear but some consequences will be left behind, country that rob it own people want to learn me what is democracy… People of the US WAKE UP, don't let your government represent u like this
Damir, Vrsac, Serbia
Russia doesn't want any war! We know what it is better than anyone - our grandparents who survived World War2 are still alive. But we have to protect ourselves and our people. We have to survive! And we will do it! No matter how much Americans want our country to collapse!
Yulia, Moscow, Russia
Hey, Europenas! You see clearly that US tries hard to rule the world - this country without history with most people not knowing even where Europe or Russia are situated dictates its will to ancient European countries. An you are just watching! Let America rest on its own land within its own borders
Yulia, Moscow, Russia
Britain had "N.Ireland" problems.. Do somebody interfere ? No.. Maybe cause Britain army was not bombing Belfast with artillery and planes.
Italy had south tirol independence claims in 1960.. But we do not bomb Bozen.
So..I think Georgia did began this violence.. And they shell now stop it.
Bob, torino, italia
US wants to become the ruler in Europe as well. While european polititians are afraid of America and keep quiet about its invasions in Iraq, Kosovo, Osetia. But it's so obvious that sooner or later you will be the next US goal! US doesn't need powerful Russia, US doesn't need powerfull Europe!
Yulia, Moscow, Russia
America dictates all the Europe what to do and Europe bows gratefully! Shame on you!
Yulia, Moscow, Russia
To Ed from London and brainwashing. I am Russian, lived and worked in Mexico, Cuba, Germany, Kazakhstan, visited all CIS countries and seen lots of what others did not see. Ed, darling, Russians are NOT brainwashed. We had too long to survive, and don't giggle - come here and see. Believe me, Ed.
Alexander, Moscow, Russia
Saakashvili is just a tool in hands of another mighty player of this game, South Ossetia is just an excuse and civilian population of the region is the hostage. Russia is reacting as expected, and the other mighty player is rubbing its hands with a smile as everything goes according to the plan.
Max, Sydney, Australia
The true information at last starts to pass in Europe. At the European it is necessary to support in the circumstances only 2 exits Russia against fascist America любо For ever to enter war and to remain for many years without heat and light! The decision for you!
Romanov Andrey, Moscow, Russia
Over the next several weeks Russia will topple democratic Georgia and seize the oil pipeline. Ever since Putin took power, and still runs the country, his goal was to expand Russia to the old USSR borders. I hope the Ukraine is getting their military ready, since I predict Russia will invade!
Bill, Topeka, USA
To especially Margaret Harris and Jonathan: welcome to Georgia, and take your children with you! You have no idea what you are saying. I live in US now and can tell you: Russian "propaganda" is a "baby" compare to US media. So many of you are being "brainwashed"…Too hard will be to recover..
Elena, Portland, US
